- Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:13 pm
#1128
Just a few thoughts to share with you all.
As we see the initial, tentative signs of the virus slowing, more people are talking about an exit strategy. How do we return to some semblance of normality, and economic recovery, from the lockdown?
One commonly heard strategy goes something like this. Test everyone in the country to confirm if they have had the virus. Those who are verified as to having it are given an all-clear certificate. People with all-clear certificates are allowed to return to normality, back to work, shopping, pubs, restaurants etc; that of course refers to workplaces, shops, pubs, restaurants etc that are staffed by employees with all-clear certificates. Testing continues with people who are not all-clear, and new certificates issued as appropriate. At some point a vaccine is produced which can be given to the remaining population who do not have all-clear certificates. Normality returns.
As I'm sure many of you will have noticed, there are some serious flaws/issues/problems/questions (choose your own descriptive noun) with this.
Firstly is assumes there is a reliable antibody test that is 99% accurate, and can be easily used in mass testing. I'm not sure if this currently exists. It also assumes that somebody who has had the disease, builds up an immunity that prevents them from catching it again, and importantly prevents them from spreading it. Again, it seems there is no evidence of this yet either.
Next there is the question of a certificate. This would be critically important as it would be a passport to start earning again, and to all the leisure activities that everyone is missing so much. For these reasons it can't be a simple piece of paper because it would be easily forged. It would also have to relate very specifically to a person, to stop people 'borrowing' them. All in all the production of these certificate would be a major operation, akin to the development of a national identify card! This will not be popular with people who fear a big brother society, and would take months to implement.
Finally (though I'm sure there's more), for such a strategy to work, people would need to see the possibility of a vaccine on the horizon. Without that some people may be condemned to home imprisonment with little chance of that ending. Their only option would be to try and contract the disease, recover, and gain their all-clear certificate! Not an ideal position to be in.
They say there's an old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times". We certainly do!
As we see the initial, tentative signs of the virus slowing, more people are talking about an exit strategy. How do we return to some semblance of normality, and economic recovery, from the lockdown?
One commonly heard strategy goes something like this. Test everyone in the country to confirm if they have had the virus. Those who are verified as to having it are given an all-clear certificate. People with all-clear certificates are allowed to return to normality, back to work, shopping, pubs, restaurants etc; that of course refers to workplaces, shops, pubs, restaurants etc that are staffed by employees with all-clear certificates. Testing continues with people who are not all-clear, and new certificates issued as appropriate. At some point a vaccine is produced which can be given to the remaining population who do not have all-clear certificates. Normality returns.
As I'm sure many of you will have noticed, there are some serious flaws/issues/problems/questions (choose your own descriptive noun) with this.
Firstly is assumes there is a reliable antibody test that is 99% accurate, and can be easily used in mass testing. I'm not sure if this currently exists. It also assumes that somebody who has had the disease, builds up an immunity that prevents them from catching it again, and importantly prevents them from spreading it. Again, it seems there is no evidence of this yet either.
Next there is the question of a certificate. This would be critically important as it would be a passport to start earning again, and to all the leisure activities that everyone is missing so much. For these reasons it can't be a simple piece of paper because it would be easily forged. It would also have to relate very specifically to a person, to stop people 'borrowing' them. All in all the production of these certificate would be a major operation, akin to the development of a national identify card! This will not be popular with people who fear a big brother society, and would take months to implement.
Finally (though I'm sure there's more), for such a strategy to work, people would need to see the possibility of a vaccine on the horizon. Without that some people may be condemned to home imprisonment with little chance of that ending. Their only option would be to try and contract the disease, recover, and gain their all-clear certificate! Not an ideal position to be in.
They say there's an old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times". We certainly do!
- By freddo