[PeterNI]

Joint statement just released by EU and looks very encouraging.

Edit: linked to June statement - copy of today's statement not yet up but the jist is looking positive

Anyways looks like progress which is to be welcomed.

[Tosh Crabtree]

As long as the deal doesn't lean in the favour of the EU, I'm ok with that .
Personally, I'd prefer a no deal . Pay them no ransom money , and say goodbye - good riddance .

[PeterNI]

The soundbites yesterday appear negative - looks like a no deal outcome.

But remember these words come from politicians, it's what is happening on the ground that's important.

A Free Trade Deal is good for UK and EU - we humans have been trading since ... well back before I can remember

There are 3 sticking points right now and the biggest is fishing ( the smallest in terms of money EU/UK)

One trade off being mentioned is the EU energy market - a side deal has already been negotiated whereby the UK will gain access to the EU market (worth many multiples of fish to the UK) in turn for a lesser access by EU to UK waters than current quota.

Another deal yet to be done is financials - a huge earner for UK who currently clear most EU transactions (known as passporting) . Failure on this will cause UK banks to close EU resident accounts (ex-pats). The City (London) will move to Frankfurt and Dublin.

Seems some UK banks are jumping the gun and already writing to expats.

On security - there have been a number of arrests by the NCA in the UK on the back of info received re EncroChat - the NCA called it the "UK’s biggest ever law enforcement operation".
't
The info came from Europol via Holland and France - info cannot be shared in a no deal scenario - contrary to EU law to share personal data outside the EU, thus challengable in a UK court.

And so on it goes - lots of losers and no winners.

Back to reality - the UK PM didn't pull the plug on Friday - he just lifted it up a little - the talking will continue next week

[PeterNI]

Speaking of trading - sometimes it's good to get a sense of what is really happening - away from the politicians.

Have a look at Eur/Gbp and Gbp/Usd to see how the money market is reacting - Gbp falls if the market expects a no deal and rises when a whiff of a deal appears - there's no politics or sentiment - just money talking - see how both those charts finished Friday to get a sense.

[PeterNI]

Finally, always good to verify info in these days of 'fake news'

NCA:

https://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/ ... on-venetic

And banks jumping the gun and moving the City to Frankfurt:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/new ... -blow.html

[Tosh Crabtree]

Interesting posts PeterNI.
Thanks for posting them.

[PeterNI]

No probs Tosh.

See how the money market was ahead of the media talk this week - the expectation was that talks would resume after the politicians had their say, which is fair enough.

They've gone into the tunnel right now which is positive, means work being done even as I post, downside is few leaks.

The are 'gaps' but there are also huge strides forward - the fish thing is a biggie from a political point of view but not from an economic perspective - but it will get fixed with compromise on both sides.

Will post later if anything happening

[Tosh Crabtree]

We'll have to wait and see now , Gentlemen.
I would think it's make or break , in the next week or two.
The clock is ticking .......... not much time left

[Tosh Crabtree]

Are you up for paying 39 billion ransom money to the Brussels mafia, Athos ?.. surely not
.
If ( hopefully ) Trump wins next week's Presidency - the truth about this whole scamdemic will come out .
So, no need to worry about the grossly exaggerated figures , that have been attributed to this strong flu , that 99% of people recover from.
Once the scam is exposed - life can return to normal.

[Tosh Crabtree]

Good point Athos.
Japan and India are already up for good trading deals .
Who needs the EU ?