[Bogeyman]

Will cost too much money to walk away and the UK will still have to pay for its commitments it signed up to
In my opinion, the big hold up of an agreement is Barnier he is being a first-class twot because he wants to get it all his way
Talks should go on until an agreement is reached that is satisfactory to both sides give and take is called for

Barnier is only following the terms of reference given to him by others. He has no power to change that.

[PeterNI]

The negotiations are still ongoing but seems finally reaching a climax.

The level playing field has been largely sorted - that was a technical argument over what may or may not happen in the future and how to deal with possible disputes - they've agreed bit like a rugby match where something happened on the field - first thing to do is get the match officials in a huddle to agree - then the ref acts.

The fish is now holding everything up - like i posted before it's tiny in economic terms by comparison to the numbers that cross the channel each year.

E.g the UK export 2 billion of petroleum and petroleum products to the single market annually - the impasse tonight is about 160m worth of fish caught by EU fishermen.

Problem is that fish are political and money isn't.

Tonight's EU (apparently final) offer to UK is a reduction of 25% of catch by EU fishermen phased in over 6 years (was 18% over 10 yrs) - UK want 50% over 3 years.

The 8 coastal EU are not on board with this offer - some of their fishermen reps are saying that a no deal would be similar or even better.

The cost of all these shenanigans are beginning to raise their heads - saw a letter last week from a leading UK bank to current account holders to a change of their T&C allowing the bank to charge for a credit balance (negative interest rate) - BOE this week confirmed not ruling out negative rates.

Failure tomorrow to agree is a failure of politics.

Edit: apologies, it's late here, there was a zero missing in my post - the number is 20 bn petr exports and not 2 bn

Agreement on the other hand will mean that there are 2 winners and no losers.

[PeterNI]

Just reading above - mostly the media focus on lead players such as M Barnier - but often it's the people in the background who get things done.

There are a few such people on the UK side - they eat pizzas late at night while still working, but will never get a mention.

There is one also worth mentioning on the EU side - a lady well respected in UK - Stéphanie Riso

If ever a deal can be done she will do it.

[PeterNI]

'Secret' phone call yesterday evening between UK PM and EU Pres - there is the makings of a deal now on the table - best possibility so far.

If they do announce a breakthrough it could be when markets are closed to try and minimize effects - close

[PeterNI]

Likely an announcement within the next 24 hours - it's even closer now.

[PeterNI]

That's the job done at last.

Good for ex-pats, good for UK business and good for EU business.

[Bogeyman]

That's the job done at last.

Good for ex-pats, good for UK business and good for EU business.

Is there much benefit for expats.

Still has lots of negative affects for UK tourists.

[Bogeyman]

Total holiday days restricted.
Quitting the Erasmus student exchange programme.
Traveling with pets more difficult.
Might be more when all is revealef.
The above only applies to UK residents not expats.

[PeterNI]

There are no specific 'benefits' for tourists or expats - the 'good' part is that vs a no-deal there are benefits.

EHIC is now gone for GB tourists (UK say to ensure travel insurance instead) - NI exempt on this one because Irish Govt picking up the bill.

Eramus as stated above also gone - again except NI - most businesses hiring look for graduates so maybe a little short sighted on this one.

European arrest warrants gone - extradition still possible but will be slower and more difficult.

Access to police data now more limited - use of Euro data in UK will encounter legal hurdles - needs to be sorted.

Services, including Financial service outside of agreement - so a UK flight operator cannot fly from say Alicante to Nice or UK Financial Institution cannot operate within EU unless via a EU subsidiary.

UK business (except NI) now have to export/import with EU along with substantial bureaucracy and paperwork (previously in was acquisitions and dispatches with just an invoice) - in the days before the single market companies employed Customs Agents to complete this work there are currently very few such agents and their skills come with cost.

So still a lot of work to be done but at least there is now a foundation on which to build.

Happy and prosperous New Year to all members here

[PeterNI]

Quick update on how the deal is working 3 weeks in.

Mostly as anticipated - bit of a shock for business who have no memory of customs - it can be a nightmare for small business - one trader who had recently made a new market for herself in Belgium has just given up.

As is usual on internet sales a business uses a courier to export from UK - problem is that the courier is responsible for collection of import vat in EU - please pay before we deliver they demand - customer says 'keep it' so it's a return.

The return now becomes an import to UK..... more hassle.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55757931